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Prediction for CME (2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-14T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16904/-1
CME Note: The start time of this CME may be off (earlier) due to a data gap in STEREO-A data. The source of this CME is a B4.9 class flare from Active Region 12823 starting at 2021-05-14T00:37Z, peaking at 2021-05-14T01:04Z, ending at 2021-05-14T01:31Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA wavelengths 193, 171, and 94. The eruption appears as a brightening from the flare in the center of the active region with dimming occurring to the south of the active region. There is a coronal hole just south of this active region that could have deflected the CME more equatorward. The CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. There are no visible CME features in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 imagery. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is associated with a shock observed at L1 at 2021-05-19T01:16Z. From Lan Jian, "There seems to be a shock in early 2021-05-19, which could be related to a glimpse of the simulated CME."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-19T01:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-18T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16901/1
Model Inputs:
2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=475.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2021-05-14T02:43Z
2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=294.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2021-05-14T14:58Z
Note that this is a 2-CME simulation, including the earlier CME with ID 2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001 in it. 

Model Output:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-05-18T12:00Z (+-7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Locations Impact:
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link =  http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link =  http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link =  http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210514_024300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 99.52 hour(s)
Difference: 13.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-05-14T21:45Z

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